Binding: Paperback
Dewey Decimal Number: 332.024
EAN: 9781562827588
ISBN: 1562827588
Label: Hyperion
Languages: Array
Manufacturer: Hyperion
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 288
Publication Date: 1994-01-01
Publisher: Hyperion
Release Date: 1993-12-15
Studio: Hyperion

Predicting the decline of Japan and the re-emergence of the United States as the most powerful economy on the planet, the Harvard economist offers readers practical advice on taking advantage of the situation. 65,000 first printing.

Customer Rating:
Summary: Great... in its time --1993
Comment: In 1993 I'd have rated this book 5 Stars. It was a great book leading up to the late 90s boom. But it's now 17 years old and there have been too many macro changes to consider this a best buy for the times. Only the demographics remain the same.

In 2000 he predicted the DOW hitting 40,000 and repeated it in his 2004 book. In 2006 he changed it to 16000 to 18000. His latest prediction is 20000 by 2009. Bottom line is that if you make enough predictions one of them is bound to be correct --- sooner or later.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: The best book I have ever read for predicting stock trends
Comment: Harry Dent really made a spectacular call back in 1993 in this book about the tremendous rise in the Dow during the 90's. He even predicted the slump in 2002-2003. His ideas of why this happened are presented in a simple theme that I found very intuitive. This book is a gem.
As for other books by Mr. Dent, he decided to contradict himself and go for very unrealistic goals for the Dow. Read this book and ONLY this book. Too late to make a killing on the stock market but still time to get out of stocks before the coming slump.
UPDATE November, 2008:
Amazing. Forget about ALL of Mr. Dent's predictions after this book was written. Here are some direct quotes from this book. And he wrote this in 1993.
Mr. Dent states very clearly on page 16 "The next great depression will be from 2008 to 2023. How long will the depression last? 12 to 15 years. Why? The peak of the baby boom births occurred between 1957 in 1961. The next wave of births did not turn up until 1973 to 1976, or 12 to 15 years later. So you can expect a major economic downturn, starting around 2008 and lasting to around 2022 to 2023. No amount of government stimulus will prevent it, just as it didn't prevent the Great Depression of the 1930s." Now he wrote this book in 1993! Housing "housing will grow dramatically from 2000 to 2004".
Business failure. "This is a period of reckoning for the excesses that develop in the growth boom. As they prosper, industries invest far too much and building capacity in the race for leadership in growth markets. Therefore, when consumer demands drop predictably after a peak of a generation's spending wave, the economy is left with a pool of excess capacity. Price wars result from everybody dumping product at lower prices. A shakeout occurs, leading to the survival of the fittest. Only strong companies with greatest economic scale and brand loyalties will survive these times. This shakeout process results in layoffs and bankruptcies, which generate persistently high levels of unemployment and deflation in prices. Depressions occur at very specific time in the industry cycle. They can be predicted, and even tempered, but not prevented."
1993. He predicted this in 1993.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: An Update
Comment: An update on this 1992 book "The Great Boom Ahead" from the perspective of 2003. First, Harry Dent is the eternal optimist and this earlier book correctly predicted the bull market of the 90s, while Robert Prechter, Martin Weiss, Nick Guarino, etc. were all wrong (in their timing at least) in predicting a downturn and depression to occur. But wait....the 2000-2002 downturn that cost so many investors money has at least opened a few eyes. And on pages 16, 18 and 34-36 of this book Harry Dent himself predicts the "Mother of all Depressions" to arrive around 2010, when the baby boomers' spending spree is over and they begin to retire. So the eternal optimist Harry Dent AGREES with the eternal pessimists and "doom-n-gloomers" about the inevitable outcome. They just disagree on the timing. So somewhere between 2004 - 2010 we can expect the largest downturn in U.S. history since 1929-1932. Enjoy the rest of the boom !!

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Customer Rating:
Summary: A Real Eye Opener
Comment: Well supported by fact and Examples. Just wish I had read it years earler as I could have saved many $. I just couldn't put it down. Now I wouldn't be without it.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Highly Recommended!
Comment: Harry S. Dent, Jr.'s book is remarkable both for the overall accuracy of its predictions and for the simplistic model upon which those predictions depend. Written in 1993, it claims a niche within the general family of "trend" books written by the likes of Alvin Toffler and John Naisbitt. The work anticipated our current era of super bullish markets, which it predicts will continue through 2007. The crystal ball drops a few items, given that a few years have passed since publication. Nonetheless, it offers a clear macroeconomic forecast and investment tool. If you sense the Fed just doesn't get the New Economy, this is the book for you. We [...] recommend this book to those seeking to understand the United States' era of record-breaking economic gains (and Japan's current hard times).

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